Tsinghua Professor Signals Extended Chinese Pressure Campaign Against Japan

Professor Liu Jiangyong of Tsinghua University’s international relations department has provided important insights into China’s strategic thinking regarding the current crisis with Japan, indicating that “China’s countermeasures are all kept secret and will be rolled out one by one” rather than announced comprehensively at the outset. This signal suggests that the economic pressure Japan has experienced thus far through tourism advisories and cultural restrictions may represent only the initial phase of a prolonged campaign designed to modify Japanese policy regarding Taiwan.
The gradual, secretive approach to implementing countermeasures creates particular challenges for Japanese policymakers and businesses attempting to assess risks and make strategic decisions. The existing impacts are already substantial, with travel advisories threatening tourism losses of approximately $11.5 billion and 0.3 percentage points of economic growth according to economist Takahide Kiuchi’s projections, based on over 8 million Chinese visitors in the first ten months of this year representing 23% of all arrivals to Japan.
Beyond tourism, the pressure campaign has included postponed film releases, cancelled entertainment events, continued enforcement of seafood import bans, and implicit threats regarding rare earth exports critical to Japanese manufacturing. Liu’s comments suggest additional measures may be implemented as the diplomatic crisis continues, with the secretive approach preventing Japan from fully anticipating or preparing for future economic pressure. This uncertainty itself serves as a form of pressure, complicating business planning and investment decisions.
The crisis was triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s characterization of potential Chinese military action against Taiwan as a “survival-threatening situation” that could necessitate Japanese military involvement. While Takaichi has clarified she was responding to hypothetical questions and maintains commitment to positive bilateral relations, China’s foreign ministry continues to demand retraction of what it terms “erroneous remarks” and explicit reaffirmation of Japanese commitment to the “One China” principle.
Liu’s analysis aligns with observations from other experts about the intractable nature of the current dispute. International relations expert Sheila A. Smith notes that domestic political constraints in both countries make compromise difficult, as leaders cannot afford to appear weak before their respective audiences. Historical precedents suggest such disputes often require leadership changes to fully resolve, as new leaders are not burdened by previous statements. Liu’s indication that countermeasures will be rolled out gradually suggests China is prepared for a prolonged campaign of pressure, with the full extent of economic consequences potentially not apparent for months or even years as additional restrictions are implemented incrementally in response to Japan’s unwillingness to modify its Taiwan position.